Studies prove that MORE guns give LESS crime
The peer-reviewed empirical evidence is overwhelming...
1. How many Defensive Gun Uses? The NCVS outlier
But than's because the National Crime Victim Survey (NCVS) stated outright that it was carried out by the Bureau of Justice and recorded the respondents' name and address. Survey respondents were required to identify themselves to the government department which could prosecute and imprison them for any illegal gun use. It also asked no direct questions about Defensive Gun Uses (DGUs) and, unsurprisingly, it found very few! Some of its deficiencies are identified here, all
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So the DGU estimate in the NCVS crime survey is less than a tenth of the dozen or so other studies. But it is a proxy for those recorded in police statistics, since it excludes those in which the gun was not fired, no serious crime was committed and the DGU was not reported. Its shortcomings prompted this article explaining how to count the defensive uses of guns...
The enormous difference between the NCVS and all the other surveys highlights the immense value of your defensive gun which protects you 24/7/365, no police required. It highlights that over 90% of DGUs stopped a violent crime in the 90's. With double the number of guns AND the big decrease in violent crime*, how many more DGUs are there nowadays?
2. Peer Review: A Tribute to a View I Have Opposed
The seminal article - A Tribute to a View I Have Opposed - by Marvin E. Wolfgang, who calls himself "as strong a gun-control advocate as can be found among criminologists," dismissed the notion that the NCVS contradicts the far larger number of DGUs found by Kleck and Gertz, see next section: Professor Kleck's peer-reviewed study and the section further down: Study: How many Defensive Gun Uses are there?
“Can it be true that about two million instances occur each year in which a gun was used as a defensive measure against crime? … I do not like their conclusions that having a gun can be useful, but I cannot fault their methodology.”
It is hard to challenge the data collected. We do not have contrary evidence. The National Crime Victim Survey does not directly contravene this latest survey.”
Even the NCVS estimate of 55,000 DGUs (later revised to 116,000) saves the police and US society over a BILLION DOLLARS a year. The US government NIH study (below) found your Criminal Justice System saves $26,479 and total savings are $41,247 when a DGU thwarts a rape. When a DGU thwarts a robbery your Criminal Justice System saves $13,827 and your community saves $21,398.
3. Study: Criminals fear being shot and injured
Criminals are more afraid of encountering an armed victim than of the police was the crucial finding of a study of almost 2,000 incarcerated felons conducted by criminology Professors Peter Rossi and James Wright at the University of Massachusetts.
was the crucial finding of a study of almost 2,000 incarcerated felons conducted by criminology Professors Peter Rossi and James Wright at the University of Massachusetts.“34% of the felons said that they had been “scared off, shot at, wounded or captured” by a victim armed with a firearm. The same percentage said they worried about being fired upon by armed victims, while 57% said they were more concerned with encountering an armed victim than encountering law enforcement officers.”
2021 UPDATE. Americans obviously understand that criminals fear people with guns.
The nearly 1.3 million background checks for purchasing a defensive weapon in July 2021 is only overshadowed by the record-breaking number of 1.8 million conducted in July 2020.
In August 2021, more than 11 million background checks have been conducted by people choosing to be able to protect themselves from a violent criminal so far this year and this marks 16 straight months of elevated defensive gun purchases throughout the nation.
In August 2021, more than 11 million background checks have been conducted by people choosing to be able to protect themselves from a violent criminal so far this year and this marks 16 straight months of elevated defensive gun purchases throughout the nation.
4. Study: Only 13 percent of American burglaries occur when there's someone at home
, Dr. Gary Kleck, a Florida State University criminologist, writes that only 13 percent of American burglaries occur when there's someone at home. But in gun-free Britain, hot burglaries account for about 45 percent of all break-ins - which made my late father petrified of violent burglars.
Britain has three times more hot burglaries than the USA, a more violent country with many armed citizens. British violent criminals prefer occupied homes because residents are defenseless which makes finding all their valuables far easier...
Professor Kleck's peer-reviewed study
attributes America's low rate of hot burglaries to the fear among criminals of being shot by armed occupants. The millions of DGUs every year show how well defensive guns protect 24/7/365 without involving the police.
Kleck quotes Dr. Marvin Wolfgang, a preeminent criminologist on record as favoring a ban on all firearms, even those carried by law enforcement officers, who says in his seminal article: A Tribute to a View I Have Opposed:
"I am as strong a gun-control advocate as can be found among the criminologists in this country. I hate guns-ugly, nasty instruments designed to kill people.
“What troubles me is the article by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz. The reason I am troubled is that they have provided an almost clear-cut case of methodologically sound research in support of something I have theoretically opposed for years, namely, the use of a gun in defense against a criminal perpetrator.
"I have to admit my admiration for the care and caution expressed in this article and this research. Can it be true that about two million instances occur each year in which a gun was used as a defensive measure against crime? …
I do not like their conclusions that having a gun can be useful, but I cannot fault their methodology."
5. President Obama's CDC study
You haven't heard much about it? Neither have we.
President Obama's CDC report on reducing gun violence is one of the best pro-gun studies around because of its provenance - it directly contradicts the Democrat's strident anti-gun message.
Unsurprisingly, its pro armed self-defense findings have largely been ignored by the media, yet some key truths did get some publicity. The CDC report, "Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence," was released in June, 2013.
Some of its many inconvenient truths:
- Armed citizens are less likely to be injured by an attacker: "Studies that directly assessed the effect of actual defensive uses of guns (i.e., incidents in which a gun was 'used' by the crime victim in the sense of attacking or threatening an offender) have found consistently lower injury rates among gun-using crime victims compared with victims who used other self-protective strategies."
- Defensive uses of guns are common: "Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses [DGUs] by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million per year." 3 million DGUs save the Criminal Justice System $40,000,000,000 (forty billion) a year and US society saves sixty billion, see the US Govt cost of violent crime study on this page here.
- Mass shootings and accidental firearm deaths account for a small fraction of gun-related deaths, and both are declining: "The number of public mass shootings of the type that occurred at Sandy Hook Elementary School accounted for a very small fraction of all firearm-related deaths. Since 1983 there have been 78 events in which 4 or more individuals were killed by a single perpetrator in 1 day in the United States, resulting in 547 victims and 476 injured persons." ... "Unintentional firearm-related deaths have steadily declined during the past century. The number of unintentional deaths due to firearm-related incidents accounted for less than 1 percent of all unintentional fatalities in 2010."
- Stolen guns and retail/gun show purchases account for very little crime: "More recent prisoner surveys suggest that stolen guns account for only a small percentage of guns used by convicted criminals. … [A 1997 survey of inmates showed around] 70 percent of the guns used or possess by criminals at the time of their arrest came from family or friends, drug dealers, street purchases, or the underground market."
- The vast majority of gun-related deaths are not homicides, but suicides: "Between the years 2000-2010 firearm-related suicides significantly outnumbered homicides for all age groups, annually accounting for 61 percent of the more than 335,600 people who died from firearms related violence in the United States."
6. Harvard Law School Study: Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder And Suicide?
Professors Kates and Mauser's world-wide scholarly study investigated the mantra that "more guns mean more deaths." The empirical evidence proves the Democrats' claim FALSE and that a firearm actually protects you from gun violence. Democratic claims that the US has the industrialized world's highest murder rate were also found to be false, to be "politically motivated."
US laws permitting millions of qualified citizens to carry more guns have been followed by statistically significant reductions in murder and gun violence.
investigated the mantra that "more guns mean more deaths." The empirical evidence proves the Democrats' claim FALSE and that a firearm actually protects you from gun violence. Democratic claims that the US has the industrialized world's highest murder rate were also found to be false, to be "politically motivated."
US laws permitting millions of qualified citizens to carry more guns have been followed by statistically significant reductions in murder and gun violence.
"During the last quarter of the 2000 century, the murder rate declined 27.7% while the number of handguns owned by Americans increased 160%.
The study proved that countries with stringent gun bans have more murders than more gun friendly ones.
"Luxembourg, where handguns are totally banned and ownership of any kind of gun is minimal, had a murder rate nine times higher than Germany in 2002."
It found that gun ownership by area in both the USA and England show "negative correlation," which means: "where firearms are most dense violent crime rates are lowest, and where guns are least dense violent crime rates are highest." It noted the especially damaging impact of Britain's draconian gun ban:
"By the year 2000, violent crime had so increased that England and Wales had Europe’s highest violent crime rate, far surpassing even the United States."
7. Peer review of Dr. John Lott's study: More Guns Less Crime
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A University Professor and trained researcher was starting a family and so investigated gun control. He originally discounted Dr. John Lott's study because of the negativity but eventually decide to review More Guns Less Crime. His research caused him to completely change his mind:
"I discovered fact after fact that starkly disproved the claims and "facts" so many teachers and colleagues had expressed about firearms and their relationship to violence, and which, during my long trip through academia, had led me to believe stricter gun control was just plain common sense.
"I now believe wholeheartedly in the right to carry, the wisdom of the 2nd Amendment, the particularly important benefits of concealed carry for women, and the notion that more firearms in law-abiding hands does make society demonstrably safer."
"If you're anti-gun and Lott's book does not ... force you to reconsider the ... benefits of an armed society, you either did not read the book with an open mind, or you do not know how to distinguish a precisely-reasoned argument from a merely political one."
8. The PoliceOne survey
The PoliceOne survey of their members proved that the vast majority of police officers know that legally-armed responsible citizens are VERY important in reducing crime. Their survey of over 15,000 law enforcers concluded:
"Fear of the unknown or known gun carrier... has an immediate effect on reducing violent criminal activity."
Violent criminals know that police shoot criminals regularly in the course of their work, and this has very little deterrent effect. That's because, as a police officer regretfully admitted:
"Ninety-five percent of the time, we get to the scene late."
But knowing that most all your citizens are armed and can defend themselves is a far larger deterrent because the criminal is threatened with immediate injury rather than sometime later whenever the police arrive.9. Concealed permit holders more law-abiding than police
Some cities as well as some police chiefs distrust even their law-abiding citizens to be armed - and yet wonder why so many of their citizens distrust the police in return...
They obviously don't know that "Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding." In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at one-sixth of the rate at which police officers are convicted.
They obviously don't know that "Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding." In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at one-sixth of the rate at which police officers are convicted.
10. Study: More carry permits, less violent crime
Comprehensive regression estimates in the Concealed Carry permit holders study by the respected Crime Prevention Research Center once again show that more armed citizens bring less violent crime. It found:
"a significant association between increased permit ownership and a drop in murder and violent crime rates."
Each one percentage point increase in rates of permit-holding is associated with a roughly 2.5 percent drop in the murder rate. This holds true even after accounting for the number of police per capita, demographics, and the percentage of the population that is incarcerated.
Is it safe to encourage your responsible, law-abiding, qualified citizens to be able to protect their children and their property from attacks by violent criminals, rapists, and terrorists? Yes! This ground-breaking study study also found that "Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding." In Florida and Texas:
"Permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at one-sixth of the rate at which police officers are convicted."
11. Study: How many Defensive Gun Uses are there?
Professor Gary Kleck is Professor Emeritus at the Florida State College of Criminology and Criminal Justice. He's conducted numerous studies of criminal issues. Along with Dr. Marc Gertz, they polled a national sample to study the annual defensive gun usage (DGU) in the USA. The United States Supreme Court has cited their 1995 study - Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence of Self-Defense with a Gun - on several occasions.
Back in 1995, their study of Defensive Gun Usage
found a total of 2.16 million DGUs per year which, using the Government's tangible per-offense costs of violent crime (see NIH Study), save police and society tens of billions of dollars. With modern interest in armed self-defense, especially by women, current estimates are higher, over three million DGUs per year. That's one person in a hundred using a gun in self-defense every year.
Since 1990, the violent crime rate has halved as the number of guns has doubled. How much is due to better police work? Has the US population become less violent with the increase in immigrants and refugees? Has double the number of guns enabled more people to defend themselves from violent criminals? With over six times LESS violent crime than law-abiding and totally disarmed Britain, at least three million DGUs a year now - if not many more - seems highly probable...
Their survey was designed to eliminate the deficiencies of other surveys [such as the misleadingly low estimate of officially reported DGUs in the NCVS (above)]. It specifically asked whether or not anyone had used a gun to protect self or property against a person perpetrating a crime. It excludes any DGU experienced in law enforcement, the military, or armed security. These questions about the nature of the incident and the crime involved eliminated specious claims and ensured that only genuine incidents were counted.
12. Survey: Americans Prefer Living in Neighborhoods With Guns
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The 2015 national telephone survey found that an overwhelming sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters feel safer living in a neighborhood where armed self-defense is allowed. Just twenty-two percent (22%) feel safer living where nobody has the option of owning a gun for their protection and ten percent (10%) are not sure.
The 2014 Gallup survey concurs: "A record-high percentage in U.S. say guns make homes safer." More Than Six in 10 Americans Say Guns Make Homes Safer.
Scores of sheriffs and police chiefs have encouraged citizens to arm themselves: "Gun ownership sounds like a very good idea to people concerned about personal safety." Americans know that responsible adults don't suddenly become criminals once they can protect themselves.
13. Study: Tough Targets: When criminals face armed resistance from citizens
The study - Tough Targets, When criminals face armed resistance from citizens - by Cramer and Burnett studied 1,277 instances of home invasions.
Since home invasions are a lot more invasive and news worthy, many more of them are reported in the media that defensive gun uses. Download the whole study here:
Since home invasions are a lot more invasive and news worthy, many more of them are reported in the media that defensive gun uses. Download the whole study here:
14. Study: Concealed Carry at Universities
Our study of Concealed Carry at these two universities explores the rape and violent crime results which came from their very different approaches to dealing with violent crime.
If you're open-minded, yet still believe in gun control, their very different results will change your mind about the effectiveness of gun bans forever.
If you'd like to explore the raw data extracted from the FBI crime data base, then you're welcome to ask.
15. Study: Costs and Consequences of Gun Control
CATO, the conservative think tank in Washington DC, has produced many fine studies, articles and reviews about the effects and ineffectiveness of gun control. See, for example, The Costs and Consequences of Gun Control.
"The National Institute of Justice study examined state-level assault-weapons bans and found NO statistically discernible reductions in crime."
16. Study: Death by Government
Not surprisingly, his findings have been largely ignored by politicians, governments and gun control advocates who all pretend not to know that disarmed citizens can be murdered by violent thugs whether they work for themselves or are employed by the government.
Dr. R.J. Rummel (1932-2014) was Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Hawaii. He was often nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
17. US Gov study: Tangible Per-Offense Cost of Violent Crime
The well-researched study of the tangible costs of violent crime by the US government - the National Institutes of Health - found that each robbery costs $21,398. This total comprises the $13,827 Criminal Justice System Cost; the $4,272 Crime Career Cost; and the $3,299 Crime Victim Cost. At $26,479 for each rape, the Criminal Justice System Cost is much higher...
Violent crime is costly, so you'll save lots by discouraging your criminals. Your Criminal Justice System saves $13,827 every time the fear of being injured discourages a robbery, and you save $26,479 whenever their fear discourages them from raping one of your innocent people.
The latest violent crime totals from the FBI show that the average city of 100,000 inhabitants has 101.9 robberies and 28.1 rapes (legacy definition) each year. The tangible cost of these robberies for the city is $2,180,456 and $1,159,041 for these violent rapes/sexual assaults.
If your city has National Average violent crime and 20,000 citizens, then the Criminal Justice System costs of your 20 robberies are $276,540 and their total tangible costs are $427,960. With 50,000 citizens, the Criminal Justice System costs of your average 51 robberies are $705,177 and the total tangible costs are $1,091,298. See the number of violent crimes your city reported to the FBI here.
- found that each robbery costs $21,398. This total comprises the $13,827 Criminal Justice System Cost; the $4,272 Crime Career Cost; and the $3,299 Crime Victim Cost. At $26,479 for each rape, the Criminal Justice System Cost is much higher...
Violent crime is costly, so you'll save lots by discouraging your criminals. Your Criminal Justice System saves $13,827 every time the fear of being injured discourages a robbery, and you save $26,479 whenever their fear discourages them from raping one of your innocent people.
The latest violent crime totals from the FBI show that the average city of 100,000 inhabitants has 101.9 robberies and 28.1 rapes (legacy definition) each year. The tangible cost of these robberies for the city is $2,180,456 and $1,159,041 for these violent rapes/sexual assaults.
If your city has National Average violent crime and 20,000 citizens, then the Criminal Justice System costs of your 20 robberies are $276,540 and their total tangible costs are $427,960. With 50,000 citizens, the Criminal Justice System costs of your average 51 robberies are $705,177 and the total tangible costs are $1,091,298. See the number of violent crimes your city reported to the FBI here.
Compare your savings to your investment of a few dollars per citizen to discourage every violent criminal from ever attacking anyone in your city. It's very cost-effective, your return on investment is just a few short months. See: How much will it cost you to indirectly discourage your criminals?
18. Study: "Economic Benefits of Reducing Violent Crime"
"Murders, rapes, and robberies impose large costs on communities through lower property values, higher insurance premiums, and reduced investment.
[They] impose significant costs on taxpayers, who bear the financial burden of maintaining the police personnel and operations, courts, jails, and prisons directed toward these crimes and their perpetrators".
Cities can enjoy "budget savings, higher revenues, and personal income and wealth gains by reducing violent crime."
Reducing violent crime increases your wealth. A 20.4% decrease in the FBI homicide rate was found to increase housing values. Unfortunately, inconsistent reporting of rapes and robberies precluded reliable analysis of the impact of reductions in these crimes.
A reduction of 20.4% in the homicide rate in a given year "in a zip code causes a 1.52% increase in housing values in that same zip code the following year."
Municipal budgetary savings were calculated for conservative violent crime declines of 10 and 25 percent. They range from $2 million per year to $59 million in the eight cities studied.
"Savings include lower expenditures on law enforcement and the justice system, as well as the additional revenues that each city could expect to collect from local taxes."
19. Study: Kennesaw's Discouragement of Violent Criminals
Background. Deciding to be Much Tougher on Guns rather than Much Tougher on Criminals, Morton Grove in Illinois with over 20,000 people outlawed private gun ownership in 1981, which received enormous positive publicity from Democrats and the media.
Kennesaw in Georgia saw the obvious opportunity. They instead chose to directly discourage their criminals with their 1982 ordinance encouraging their responsible citizens to be able to defend their families - which got enormous NEGATIVE publicity.
The results? Economic development took off as their violent crime plummeted by 79% showing that the media negativity was in fact very beneficial - it warned their violent criminals they risk being shot and injured by their prey. If you'd like to explore the raw data extracted from the FBI crime data base, then you're welcome to ask.
Kennesaw was the first city to directly discourage criminals from attacking their citizens and now enjoys a much improved socioeconomic status. In 2007, Kennesaw was selected by Family Circle magazine as one of the nation's "10 best towns for families."
Kennesaw in Georgia saw the obvious opportunity. They instead chose to directly discourage their criminals with their 1982 ordinance encouraging their responsible citizens to be able to defend their families - which got enormous NEGATIVE publicity.
The results? Economic development took off as their violent crime plummeted by 79% showing that the media negativity was in fact very beneficial - it warned their violent criminals they risk being shot and injured by their prey. If you'd like to explore the raw data extracted from the FBI crime data base, then you're welcome to ask.
Kennesaw was the first city to directly discourage criminals from attacking their citizens and now enjoys a much improved socioeconomic status. In 2007, Kennesaw was selected by Family Circle magazine as one of the nation's "10 best towns for families."
20. The supposedly unbiased "Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia"
The "thoroughly updated" second edition of the supposedly unbiased "Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia" was published in 2012 while the original edition came out in 2002.
Englander and Snell are professional authors, they know to avoid long paragraphs and their first is just five lines long. So why is the second an astonishing 26 lines (sic) - over five times longer? How to deliberately mislead? You hide the inconvenient truth - the enormous drop in crime - in the middle of a very long paragraph in a very long sentence which no one will read.
Why did the analysis of Kennesaw's crime reductions - achieved by directly encouraging their citizens to be able to defend themselves - use obsolete data from 1985, only 3 short years after their ordinance was passed, rather than up-to-date numbers covering the full 30 year span? And why...
See the complete, very misleading story on their hatchet job here.
Englander and Snell are professional authors, they know to avoid long paragraphs and their first is just five lines long. So why is the second an astonishing 26 lines (sic) - over five times longer? How to deliberately mislead? You hide the inconvenient truth - the enormous drop in crime - in the middle of a very long paragraph in a very long sentence which no one will read.
Why did the analysis of Kennesaw's crime reductions - achieved by directly encouraging their citizens to be able to defend themselves - use obsolete data from 1985, only 3 short years after their ordinance was passed, rather than up-to-date numbers covering the full 30 year span? And why...
See the complete, very misleading story on their hatchet job here.
Food for Thought
"Although nature commences with reason and ends in experience it is necessary for us to do the opposite, that is to commence with experience and from this to proceed to investigate the reason.”
Leonardo da Vinci, painter, writer, sculptor, inventor, engineer, all-round genius (1452 – 1519)
"Consider taking a certified safety course in handling a firearm so you can defend yourself until we get there. You have a duty to protect yourself and your family."
– Sheriff David Clarke, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
"People normally don't want to get involved in suspicious activity or crimes because they're scared of becoming a victim themselves.
"But [once you're armed and able to protect yourself], you're much more likely to be open and sincere with police officers because you have a means to defend yourself and your family if the bad guys come looking for you."
– Police Chief Jim Koury, City of Nelson, Georgia
DC52 R Studies page94