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Is it True?

Why is American violent crime so much lower than Britain?

1. Is it because Americans have guns for defense?

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The undeniable truth is that Britain now has 6.85 TIMES more violent crime per capita than the USA, see previous page - Compare violent crime rates in USA and Britain Open Page in a new Tab - and it's now a lot worse since the earlier comparison a decade ago. But why? What's the reason?

The obvious cause is that law-abiding Brits are almost totally disarmed - their citizens are legally denied the right to defend themselves - while widespread gun ownership in the USA means Americans can and do protect themselves, armed self-defense is specified as a right in the Constitution. But is this true? Is this just CORRELATION, or actual CAUSATION?

2. What to trust in a "post-truth" world?

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What to trust in a "post-truth" world is a London Business School TED talk by Alex Edmans who says that you can only learn if you are truly open to the possibility of being wrong. Full of insights, he explores how confirmation bias - the tendency to only accept information that supports your personal beliefs - can lead you astray on social media, in politics and beyond, and offers three practical tools for finding evidence you can actually trust.

3. The highly deceptive NationMaster "Violent Crime" comparison

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The Nationmaster violent crime comparison has been totally invalidated. It's of such poor quality that its many shortcomings are now detailed in a separate report, see the disingenuous Nationmaster "Violent Crime" comparison.

Some of those many shortcomings are:
  • Nationmaster only compare homicides/murders, yet pretend they are comparing violent crime.
  • They do not use official crime statistics from the FBI and the ONS but rely on numbers and sources that are explicitly stated to be of "bad quality"
  • They're even confused about the difference between murder and murder RATE (the rate depends on the population).
Their deceptive comparison is reminiscent of the hatchet job about the amazing drop in violent crime enjoyed by armed citizens in the "thoroughly updated" second edition of Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia.

4. How to Find the Truth

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Edmans suggests you ask the following three questions to find the truth, so let's check out the reason for so much more violent crime in Britain than America.

Does Britain have so much more violent crime because the British cannot legally defend themselves while America's 2nd Amendment guarantees their right to guns and armed self-defense?

1. Is it true? Yes, official government statistics show far more violent crime in Britain than USA, so it is indeed a fact.

2. Is the fact representative? Yes, the comparison is between governmental official statistics for each country so it is indeed representative data.

3. Is the data supportive? Yes, all the data supports the contention that more guns cause less crime, so the evidence is indeed supportive.
But is the obvious answer - that more guns cause less crime because violent criminals dislike the possibility of being shot and injured by their victim - actually true? If it's not true, what other reasons can there be for the drastic difference in violent crime rates? What do the experts say? Are there any other reasons which would explain the cold hard facts?

Let's explore...

5. Is there any Confirmation Bias?

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It's fact not theory that disarmed Britain has over six times more violent crime per person than well-armed USA. But what causes the enormous difference? What's the reason?

The obvious explanation is that the legal right to be armed and able to defend yourself deters a violent criminal from attacking you since he/she don't know if you have a gun. Gun control advocates dispute this explanation, so let's look at rival theories and see if any could be true.

Rival Theories:
Rival Theory #1. Is Britain's even worse violent crime rate than America caused by their very similar decrease in police numbers over the past ten years?

There were 142,363 Police Officers in Britain (England and Wales) on 30 September 2010. As at 30 September 2018 there were 122,395 police officers. A decrease of 19,968. The population of England and Wales in mid-2010 was estimated to be 55,692,400 and in mid-2018 to be 59,115,800. An increase of 3,423,400.

Yet in 2010, America had 705,009 officers and in 2018, there were 686,665 officers. A decrease of 18,344 - very similar. America in 2010 had 309,330,219 population and 327,167,434 in 2018. An increase of 17,837,215.

The England and Wales population from 2010 to 2018 increased by 3,423,400 and the number of police decreased by 19,968. America's population from 2010 to 2018 increased by far more - 17,837,215 - and the number of police also decreased - by 18,344. Yet the number of police officers in Britain was higher per 100,000 population than America in 2010 (256 vs 228, 12% more) and decreased to more or less parity (207 vs 210, 1% less) in 2018.

A decade ago, Britain had 436% more violent crimes per person than America which increased to 685% more in 2018 and British police now warn that their violent crime is SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER-RECORDED.” Given that Britain had more police per population than America in 2010, the reductions to equalize the numbers of police officers does NOT explain Britain's far higher violent crime rate.
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Rival Theory #2. Brits are far more prone to violence. No - their well-known stiff upper lip and preference for calm discourse actually suggests that Brits are inherently LESS violent than Americans.

Rival Theory #3. Has the immigrant flow to Britain caused the vastly higher violent crime rate? Unlikely - America is a nation of immigrants and has more legal immigrants than any other country in the world, along with an enormous number of illegal immigrants, so immigrants per se are not the cause.

Rival Theory #4. Is it the different countries immigrants come from? Many immigrants to Britain come from civilized European countries which are considered less prone to violent crime than the third world. Many US immigrants both legal and illegal come from the third world and the Middle East. So no, immigrants from different countries are not the cause.

Rival Theory #5. Although there is a strong correlation between armed citizens and lower levels of violent crime, there's no causation. It's something else unknown. But when you've explored and discarded all the alternate explanations, then the only remaining explanation which does fit must be true.

Rival Theory #6. But maybe you're still not convinced? Then what's your favorite feasible explanation - let us know all about it along with the facts as well as the evidence that support it in the Disqus comments below. Then we can address it, evaluate it, and change this page accordingly.
We're looking for causation not just correlation which has already been comprehensively demonstrated. Unbiased American studies correlate an INCREASE in guns with a DECREASE in violent crime. A few of the many (in www.DiscourageCriminals.net/studies Open Page in a new Tab) are explored in the studies section below...

Massive evidence, following, along with many studies, all support the obvious: That violent criminals and violent crime are encouraged when law-abiding citizens are rendered defenseless.

6. Defensive guns deter Violent Criminals

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There are a couple of million Defensive Gun Uses every year. Each and every DGU shows the immense value of being armed and able to defend yourself 24/7/365.

Whenever a defensive gun is not fired and no one is injured, that's a Defensive Gun Use which is not usually reported to the police. The 2.5 million annual DGUs measure the enormous number of violent crimes stopped by defensive guns each year.

Without Defensive Gun Uses, the 1,206,836 violent crimes each year would be three times higher and Britain's violent crime rate wouldn't be nearly so much higher! Conversely, if Britain allowed its people to deter violent criminals from attack, Britain's violent crime rate would be LOTS lower!

7. What do the professionals say?

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Do law professionals and the police confirm the theory? Yes, the PoliceOne survey of their hundreds of thousands of law enforcement professionals Open Page in a new Tab found that the vast majority of police officers know that legally-armed responsible citizens are VERY important in reducing crime. The report on their members' survey concluded:

"Fear of the unknown or known gun carrier... has an immediate effect on REDUCING VIOLENT CRIMINAL ACTIVITY."

8. What do Gun Bans Results say?

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When Australia banned guns, it enforced a compulsory buyback scheme to remove thousands of firearms from private hands Open Page in a new Tab. The government purchased and destroyed more than 60,000 banned guns in 1997 at a cost of $500 million.

Since then, violent crime has drastically increased. Armed robbery is up by 69%, armed assault up by 28%, gun murders up by 19% and home invasions increased by 21%.

In 1980, Brazil had a homicide rate of about 12 per 100,000 people, only a little higher than the United States with a homicide rate of 10.2 in the same year. In 2017, 37 years later, the United States homicide rate dropped in half to 5.2, while Brazil’s rate more than tripled to over 39 Open Page in a new Tab.

What made the difference? Brazil's 2003 disarmament legislation, their politicians made it illegal to own a gun for self-defense.
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Jamaica’s results confirm that guns protect you from violent crime - gun control dramatically increased their murder rate Open Page in a new Tab when they enacted a handgun ban in 1974.

Jamaica’s murder rate is now one of the highest in the world Open Page in a new Tab, currently at least double that of other Caribbean countries. Their murder rate hasn’t sunk below 10 murders per 100,000 people since the gun ban went into effect.

Although Venezuela banned gun ownership in 2012 Open Page in a new Tab and forcibly confiscated guns in 2013 - ostensibly to fight violent crime - their national homicide rate has RISEN not fallen.

More than half Venezuelan families cannot meet basic food needs, yet their government uses live ammunition against protesters Open Page in a new Tab, with over 30 citizens murdered by government agents. Countless others have been murdered by the colectivos, pro-government gangs of 400,000 thugs who enforce "the regime’s rule by violence".

9. What do the experts say?

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"The average number of people shot in a mass shooting event when the shooter is stopped by law enforcement: 14. The average number of people shot in a mass shooting event when the shooter is stopped by civilians: 2.5. The reason is simple. THE ARMED CIVILIANS ARE THERE WHEN IT STARTED."

Criminology Professors Peter Rossi and James Wright Open Page in a new Tab surveyed well over a thousand imprisoned criminals to find that:

"57% said they were more concerned with encountering an armed victim than encountering law enforcement officers while 34% said they WORRIED ABOUT BEING FIRED UPON BY ARMED VICTIMS."

10. What do anti-gun zealots say?

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Dr. Marvin E. Wolfgang called himself "as strong a gun-control advocate as can be found among criminologists." He even held that police should NOT be armed - as in Britain! Yet he also had the integrity to issue: A Tribute to a View I Have Opposed Open Page in a new Tab

His peer-review concluded that he was UNABLE TO FIND ANY FAULT with Professors Kleck and Gertz study which found there are over two million incidents each year in which a gun was used as a defensive measure against crime.
This preeminent criminologist favored a complete ban on ALL firearms Open Page in a new Tab, even those carried by law enforcement officers. Yet he could NOT find any way to disagree with the unsurprising conclusion of Dr. Kleck and Gertz's study: that American criminals fear being shot by armed occupants.

"I have to admit my admiration for the care and caution expressed in this research. … I do not like their conclusions that having a gun can be useful [for defense against violent criminals], but I CANNOT fault their methodology."

11. Gun Control can get you MURDERED!

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Liberal Alan Berg tried to obtain a firearms permit when he received death threats from a violent clique, but the police refused. He was murdered in a hail of machine-gun fire soon after. See Talked to Death, the Life and Murder of Alan Berg Open Page in a new Tab.

California's gun control laws murdered two children, seven-year-old John and nine-year-old Ashley Danielle Open Page in a new Tab. Fourteen-year-old Jessica Carpenter needed a gun to defend them but it was "safely stored" away under California Safe Storage laws.

When the police arrived, they shot 27-year-old Jonathon Bruce dead, if only the law had also allowed Jessica to defend them...

12. The seminal study: More Guns, Less Crime

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The evidence is overwhelming that arming law-abiding citizens decrease violent crime. The same result found by Dr. John Lott's seminal study Open Page in a new Tab published in More Guns Less Crime Open Page in a new Tab.

Peer reviews. See the board-certified forensic expert findings on Dr. Lott's study here Open Page in a new Tab and the University Professor and trained researcher's findings here Open Page in a new Tab:

"I now believe wholeheartedly in the right to carry, the wisdom of the 2nd Amendment, the particularly important benefits of concealed carry for women, and the notion that more firearms in law-abiding hands does make society demonstrably safer."

13. What do other studies say?

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There are many more studies listed on the studies Open Page in a new Tab page which confirm that More Guns do indeed cause Less Crime.

More peer-reviewed studies:
a. Criminals fear being shot and injured Open Page in a new Tab. The crucial finding of a study of 2,000 incarcerated felons conducted by criminology Professors Peter Rossi and James Wright at the University of Massachusetts:

"Criminals are more afraid of encountering an armed victim than of the police!"

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b. Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder and Suicide? Open Page in a new Tab
Professors Kates and Mauser's Harvard Law School Study found that US laws permitting more qualified citizens to carry guns have been followed by statistically significant reductions in murder and violent crime.

See more about the Harvard University Academic study here Open Page in a new Tab

c. Firearm Related Violence Open Page in a new Tab ordered by President Obama
President Obama ordered this CDC study and then suppressed the report because its findings directly contradict his socialist anti-self-defense gun-control message. Its many pro-gun findings include the intuitively obvious:

Armed citizens are LESS likely than unarmed citizens to be injured by an attacker. There are several million Defensive Gun Uses each year in America which are NOT reported to the police because no-one is injured, each of which prevents a violent crime.

d. The Concealed Carry Permit Holders study Open Page in a new Tab
The Concealed Carry Permit Holders study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found:

"a significant association between increased permit ownership and a drop in murder and violent crime rates."

14. More and more States are moving to Constitutional Carry

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More and more states are moving to making being armed easier and constitutional carry. Each one finds the evidence that gun bans increase violent crime to be so overwhelming that it negates the Democrat's constant misinformation. Actually, all the evidence shows instead that gun control advocates lie all the time Open Page in a new Tab.

There are now a dozen States that require no permit to carry a defensive gun. South Dakota are poised to join them while Oklahoma is on the verge of ending permit requirement for concealed carry Open Page in a new Tab. More and more States are making it easier and/or less expensive for law-abiding citizens to be able to defend themselves. Texas is planning a push to eliminate their concealed carry permits Open Page in a new Tab.

This ever-growing number of American States have concluded there's enough proof correlating more guns with less crime that they should ignore the lies and misinformation of the gun control fanatics Open Page in a new Tab.

15. Conclusion

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The highly deceptive NationMaster report which falsely claims to compare violent crime in the US and UK doesn't even see a difference between violent crime and the violent crime rate. Along with its many other shortcomings it's thoroughly debunked here.
The well-respected Violent Crime Research Center found that all countries which have banned guns have seen their violent crime rates INCREASE, see minute 3:20 in this video here Open Page in a new Tab and here Open Page in a new Tab.

"Every single place in the world where either all guns have been banned or all hand-guns have been banned, murder rates have gone up. Not just US cities like Chicago and Washington DC, but also UK, Jamaica, Republic of Ireland."

"When guns are outlawed, only outlaws have guns.

"The same sources that provide criminals with ILLEGAL DRUGS [also provide criminals with] ILLEGAL GUNS."

All the evidence supports the conclusion that people who can defend themselves from violent criminals suffer less violent crime that those who are legally prevented from armed self-defense. It's undeniably true that "when you outlaw guns, only outlaws have guns".

It's NOT rocket science Open Page in a new Tab! Whenever you empower law-abiding citizens with defensive guns, then violent crime goes down because the number of Defensive Gun Uses Open Page in a new Tab increases. Criminals often stop a planned assault once they realize their victim is or may be armed…

Food for Thought

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170 million new guns, 51% decrease in violent crime since 1991

"Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."

- John Adams, 1735-1826, Founding Father, first Vice-President and second President of the U.S.A.

"The goal of socialism IS communism.”
- Vladimir Lenin, Communist political theorist. Head of Soviet Russia and the Soviet Union

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© Copyright worldwide Cris Baker, www.DiscourageCriminals.net. All rights reserved. Republishing welcomed under Creative Commons noncommercial no derivatives license preserving all links intact, so share this widely!

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