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Studies prove that MORE guns give LESS crime

The peer-reviewed empirical evidence is overwhelming...

1. The outlier: the National Crime Victim Survey

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Seal of the Department of Justice
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Kennesaw grows while Morton Grove declines
The National Crime Victim Survey (NCVS) stated outright that it was carried out by the Bureau of Justice which required and recorded the respondents' name and address. So survey respondents were required to identify themselves to the government department which could prosecute and imprison them for any illegal gun use. Nor did it ask any direct questions about Defensive Gun Uses and, unsurprisingly, it found very few! Some of its many deficiencies are identified here, All Open Page in a new Tab.

No wonder the NCVS Defensive Gun Uses estimate was so much lower than the dozen or so other studies. But it is a reasonable proxy for the number of DGUs recorded in official statistics, since it excludes those in which
the gun was not fired, no serious crime was committed and the DGU was not reported. Its shortcomings prompted this article explaining how to count the defensive uses of guns...
The seminal article - A Tribute to a View I Have Opposed - by Marvin E. Wolfgang, "as strong a gun-control advocate as can be found among criminologists," dismissed the notion that the NCVS contradicts the much larger number of DGUs found by Kleck and Gertz.

"Can it be true that about two million instances occur each year in which a gun was used as a defensive measure against crime? [But] it is hard to challenge the data collected. We do not have contrary evidence. The National Crime Victim Survey does not directly contravene this latest survey."

Even the NCVS estimate of DGUs - just 55,000 (later revised to 116,000) - saves the police and US society over a BILLION DOLLARS a year. The US government NIH study (below) found your Criminal Justice System saves $26,479 and total savings are $41,247 each time a DGU thwarts a rape. When a DGU thwarts a robbery your Criminal Justice System saves $13,827 and your community saves a total of $21,398.

2. US Gov study: Tangible Per-Offense Cost of Violent Crime

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US Government NIH peer-reviewed violent crime costs table
The well-researched study of the tangible costs of violent crime by the US government - the National Institutes of Health Open Page in a new Tab - found that each robbery costs $21,398. This total comprises the $13,827 Criminal Justice System Cost; the $4,272 Crime Career Cost; and the $3,299 Crime Victim Cost. At $26,479 for each rape, the Criminal Justice System Cost is much higher...

The
latest violent crime totals from the FBI show that the average city of 100,000 inhabitants has 101.9 robberies and 28.1 rapes (legacy definition) each year. The tangible cost of these robberies for the city is $2,180,456 and $1,159,041 for these violent rapes/sexual assaults.

If your city has National Average violent crime and 20,000 citizens, then the Criminal Justice System costs of your 20 robberies are $276,540 and their total tangible costs are $427,960. With 50,000 citizens, the Criminal Justice System costs of your average 51 robberies are $705,177 and the total tangible costs are $1,091,298.
See the number of violent crimes your city reported to the FBI here.

But if you have high violent crime, then you'll save lots by discouraging criminals. Your Criminal Justice System saves $13,827 every time the fear of being injured discourages a violent attack on one of your citizens.
Compare your savings to your investment of a few dollars per citizen to discourage every violent criminal from ever attacking anyone in your city. It's very cost-effective, your return on investment is just a few short months. See: How much will it cost you to indirectly discourage your criminals? Open Page in a new Tab

3. President Obama's CDC study

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President Obama
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President Obama's executive order for the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to research gun violence and its inputs, outputs and outcomes was eagerly anticipated by the anti-gun media.

You haven't heard much about it? Nor have we.

President Obama's CDC report on reducing gun violence is one of the best pro-gun studies around because of its provenance - it directly contradicts his strident anti-gun message.

Unsurprisingly, its pro armed self-defense findings have largely been ignored by the media, yet
some key truths did get some publicity. The CDC report, “Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence,” was released in June, 2013.

Some of its many inconvenient truths:
  1. Armed citizens are less likely to be injured by an attacker: “Studies that directly assessed the effect of actual defensive uses of guns (i.e., incidents in which a gun was ‘used’ by the crime victim in the sense of attacking or threatening an offender) have found consistently lower injury rates among gun-using crime victims compared with victims who used other self-protective strategies.”
  2. Defensive uses of guns are common: “Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses [DGUs] by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million per year.” 3 million DGUs save the Criminal Justice System $40,000,000,000 (forty billion) a year and US society saves sixty billion, see the US Govt cost of violent crime study above.
  3. Mass shootings and accidental firearm deaths account for a small fraction of gun-related deaths, and both are declining: “The number of public mass shootings of the type that occurred at Sandy Hook Elementary School accounted for a very small fraction of all firearm-related deaths. Since 1983 there have been 78 events in which 4 or more individuals were killed by a single perpetrator in 1 day in the United States, resulting in 547 victims and 476 injured persons.” ... “Unintentional firearm-related deaths have steadily declined during the past century. The number of unintentional deaths due to firearm-related incidents accounted for less than 1 percent of all unintentional fatalities in 2010.”
  4. Stolen guns and retail/gun show purchases account for very little crime: “More recent prisoner surveys suggest that stolen guns account for only a small percentage of guns used by convicted criminals. … [A 1997 survey of inmates showed around] 70 percent of the guns used or possess by criminals at the time of their arrest came from family or friends, drug dealers, street purchases, or the underground market.”
  5. The vast majority of gun-related deaths are not homicides, but suicides: Between the years 2000-2010 firearm-related suicides significantly outnumbered homicides for all age groups, annually accounting for 61 percent of the more than 335,600 people who died from firearms related violence in the United States.”

4. Study: "Economic Benefits of Reducing Violent Crime"

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"Murders, rapes, and robberies impose large costs on communities through lower property values, higher insurance premiums, and reduced investment. [They] impose significant costs on taxpayers, who bear the financial burden of maintaining the police personnel and operations, courts, jails, and prisons directed toward these crimes and their perpetrators".

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The Economic Benefits of Reducing Violent Crime study by the Democrat's Center for American Progress [President Bill Clinton's White House Chief of Staff John Podesta was its first president] shows, with numerous regressions, how American municipalities can reduce spending and expand their revenues without onerous new taxes:

Cities can enjoy "budget savings, higher revenues, and personal income and wealth gains by reducing violent crime."

Reducing violent crime increases your wealth. A 20.4% decrease in the FBI homicide rate was found to increase housing values. Unfortunately, inconsistent reporting of rapes and robberies precluded reliable analysis of the impact of reductions in these crimes.

A reduction of 20.4% in the homicide rate in a given year "in a zip code causes a 1.52% increase in housing values in that same zip code the following year."

Municipal budgetary savings were calculated for conservative violent crime declines of 10 and 25 percent. They range from $2 million per year to $59 million in the eight cities studied.

"Savings include lower expenditures on law enforcement and the justice system, as well as the additional revenues that each city could expect to collect from local taxes."

5. Study: How many Defensive Gun Uses are there?

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Dr. Kleck Professor of Criminology
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Kennesaw grows while Morton Grove declines
Professor Gary Kleck is Professor Emeritus at the Florida State College of Criminology and Criminal Justice. He's conducted numerous studies of criminal issues. Along with Dr. Marc Gertz, they polled a national sample to study the annual defensive gun usage (DGU) in the USA. The United States Supreme Court has cited their 1995 study - Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence of Self-Defense with a Gun - on several occasions.
Dr. Gertz has conducted thousands of surveys
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Kennesaw grows while Morton Grove declines
Dr. Marc Gertz, Professor · Faculty Affiliate, Institute for the Prevention of Financial Fraud, has conducted many thousands of surveys, used by both professors and doctoral students for high quality research and publications in top journals in various fields.

Back in 1995, their study of
Defensive Gun Usage found a total of 2.16 million DGUs per year which, using the Government's tangible per-offense costs of violent crime (see NIH Study above), save police and society tens of billions of dollars. With modern interest in armed self-defense, especially by women, current estimates are higher, over three million DGUs per year. That's one person in a hundred using a gun in self-defense every year.

Since 1990, the violent crime rate has halved as
the number of guns has doubled. How much is due to better police work? Has the US population become less violent with the increase in immigrants and refugees? Does double the number of guns enable more people to defend themselves? With some five times LESS violent crime than law-abiding and totally disarmed Britain, at least three million DGUs a year now - if not many more - seems highly probable...

Their survey was designed to eliminate the deficiencies of many other surveys [such as
the disingenuous (deceitfully low) 55,000 DGU estimate in the NCVS above]. It specifically asked whether or not anyone had used a gun to protect self or property against a person perpetrating a crime. It excludes any DGU experienced in law enforcement, the military, or armed security. These questions about the nature of the incident and the crime involved eliminated specious claims and ensured that only genuine incidents were counted.

6. Studies: Criminals fear being shot and injured

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Most burglars are more afraid of homeowners with guns than of the police Open Page in a new Tab was the crucial finding of a study of almost 2,000 incarcerated felons Open Page in a new Tab conducted by criminology Professors Peter Rossi and James Wright at the University of Massachusetts.
Gary Kleck
In Point Blank: Guns and Violence in America Open Page in a new Tab, Dr. Gary Kleck, a Florida State University criminologist, wrote that only 13 percent of American burglaries occur when there's someone at home. But in gun-free Britain, hot burglaries account for about 45 percent of all break-ins making my late father petrified of violent burglars.

Britain has three times more hot burglaries than the USA, a more violent country with many armed citizens. British violent criminals prefer occupied homes because residents are defenseless which makes finding all their valuables far easier...

Professor Kleck's peer-reviewed study Open Page in a new Tab attributes America’s low rate of hot burglaries to the fear among criminals that they could get shot by armed occupants.

Kleck quotes Dr. Marvin Wolfgang, a preeminent criminologist on record as favoring a ban on all firearms, even those carried by law enforcement officers, who says in his seminal article:
A Tribute to a View I Have Opposed:

"I am as strong a gun-control advocate as can be found among the criminologists in this country. I hate guns-ugly, nasty instruments designed to kill people.

“What troubles me is the article by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz. The reason I am troubled is that they have provided an almost clear-cut case of methodologically sound research in support of something I have theoretically opposed for years, namely, the use of a gun in defense against a criminal perpetrator.

"I have to admit my admiration for the care and caution expressed in this article and this research. Can it be true that about two million instances occur each year in which a gun was used as a defensive measure against crime?
I do not like their conclusions that having a gun can be useful, but I cannot fault their methodology."

7. Study: More carry permits, less violent crime

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Comprehensive regression estimates in the Concealed Carry permit holders study by the respected Crime Prevention Research Center once again show that more armed citizens bring less violent crime. It found:

"a significant association between increased permit ownership and a drop in murder and violent crime rates."

Each one percentage point increase in rates of permit-holding is associated with a roughly 2.5 percent drop in the murder rate. This holds true even after accounting for the number of police per capita, demographics, and the percentage of the population that is incarcerated.
Is it safe to encourage your responsible, law-abiding, qualified citizens to be able to protect themselves, their family and their property from attacks by violent criminals, rapists, and terrorists? Yes! This ground-breaking study study also found that "Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding." In Florida and Texas:

"Permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at one-sixth of the rate at which police officers are convicted."

8. The PoliceOne survey

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Gun Control Survey courtesy of www.PoliceOne.com #618655
The PoliceOne survey of their members proved that the vast majority of police officers know that legally-armed responsible citizens are VERY important in reducing crime. Their survey of over 15,000 law enforcers concluded:

"Fear of the unknown or known gun carrier... has an immediate effect on reducing violent criminal activity."

Violent criminals know that police shoot criminals regularly in the course of their work, and this has very little deterrent effect. That's because, as a police officer once said:

"Ninety-five percent of the time, we get to the scene late."

But knowing that most all your citizens are armed and can defend themselves is a far larger deterrent because the criminal is threatened with immediate injury rather than sometime later whenever the police arrive.

Some cities as well as some police chiefs distrust even their law-abiding citizens to be armed - and yet wonder why so many of their citizens distrust the police in return...

They obviously don't know that "Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding." In Florida and Texas,
permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors and felonies at one-sixth of the rate at which police officers are convicted.

9. Tough Targets: When criminals face armed resistance from citizens"

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The study - Tough Targets, When criminals face armed resistance from citizens - by Cramer and Burnett studied 1,277 instances of home invasions.

Since home invasions are a lot more invasive and news worthy, many more of them are reported in the media that defensive gun uses.
Download the whole study here:

10. Americans Prefer Living in Neighborhoods With Guns

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Rasmusson Reports
Rasmusson Reports
Over three times more Americans feel safer living in a neighborhood where they can have a gun to protect their family, their children and their property than Americans who feel safer when nobody is allowed to own a gun found the Rasmusson Reports survey of where people feel safer living Open Page in a new Tab.

The 2015 national telephone survey found that an overwhelming sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters feel safer living in a neighborhood where armed self-defense is allowed. Just twenty-two percent (22%) feel safer living where nobody has the option of owning a gun for their protection and ten percent (10%) are not sure.

The 2014 Gallup survey concurs: "A record-high percentage in U.S. say guns make homes safer."
More Than Six in 10 Americans Say Guns Make Homes Safer.

Scores of sheriffs and police chiefs have encouraged citizens to arm themselves: "Gun ownership sounds like a very good idea to people concerned about personal safety." Americans know that responsible adults don't suddenly become criminals once they can protect themselves.

11. Dr. John Lott's study: More Guns Less Crime

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More Guns Less Crime book cover
Dr. John Lott's comprehensive yet much maligned study: More Guns Less Crime has now been peer-reviewed.

A University Professor and trained researcher was starting a family and so investigated gun control. He originally discounted Dr. John Lott's study because of the negativity but eventually decide to review More Guns Less Crime. His research caused him to completely change his mind:

"I discovered fact after fact that starkly disproved the claims and "facts" so many teachers and colleagues had expressed about firearms and their relationship to violence, and which, during my long trip through academia, had led me to believe stricter gun control was just plain common sense.

"I now believe wholeheartedly in the right to carry, the wisdom of the 2nd Amendment, the particularly important benefits of concealed carry for women, and the notion that more firearms in law-abiding hands does make society demonstrably safer."

"If you're anti-gun and Lott's book does not ... force you to reconsider the ... benefits of an armed society, you either did not read the book with an open mind, or you do not know how to distinguish a precisely-reasoned argument from a merely political one."

12. Concealed Carry study

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Ebook cover for Concealed Carry study
In 2002, one Colorado University obeyed state law and allowed concealed carry on campus. The other decided that state law did not apply to them and insisted there should be no guns on their campus.

Our
study of Concealed Carry at these two universities explores the rape and violent crime results which came from their very different approaches to dealing with violent crime.

If you're open-minded, yet still believe in gun control, their very different results will change your mind about the effectiveness of gun bans forever.

If you'd like to explore the raw data extracted from the FBI crime data base, then you're welcome to ask.

13. Study: Death by Government

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169 Million Murdered by Government Politicians
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Death by Government is a study of the 169 million citizens murdered by their government in the 20th century - since they had all been disarmed, they were unable to defend themselves.

Not surprisingly, his findings have been largely ignored by politicians, governments and gun control advocates who all pretend not to know that disarmed citizens can be murdered by violent thugs whether they work for themselves or are employed by the government.

Dr. R.J. Rummel (1932-2014) was Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Hawaii. He was often nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

14. Costs and Consequences of Gun Control

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CATO, the conservative think tank in Washington DC, has produced many fine studies, articles and reviews about the effects and effectiveness of gun control. See, for example, The Costs and Consequences of Gun Control.

"The National Institute of Justice study examined state-level assault-weapons bans and found NO statistically discernable reductions in crime."

15. Study: Kennesaw's Discouragement of Violent Criminals

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Population changes in Kennesaw and Morton Grove since UGO
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Kennesaw grows while Morton Grove declines
Background. Deciding to be Much Tougher on Guns rather than Much Tougher on Criminals, Morton Grove in Illinois with over 20,000 people outlawed private gun ownership in 1981, which received enormous positive publicity from Democrats and the media.

Kennesaw in Georgia saw the obvious opportunity. They instead chose to directly discourage their criminals with their 1982 ordinance encouraging their responsible citizens to be able to defend their families - which got enormous NEGATIVE publicity.

The results?
Economic development took off as their violent crime plummeted by 79% showing that the media negativity was in fact very beneficial - it warned their violent criminals they risk being shot and injured by their prey. If you'd like to explore the raw data extracted from the FBI crime data base, then you're welcome to ask.

Kennesaw was the first city to directly discourage criminals from attacking their citizens and now enjoys a much improved socioeconomic status. In 2007, Kennesaw was selected by Family Circle magazine as one of the nation's "10 best towns for families."

16. The supposedly unbiased "Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia"

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The hidden truth about Kennesaw
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Deliberate Deception -
the Hatchet Job on Kennesaw's Crime Decrease
The "thoroughly updated" second edition of the supposedly unbiased "Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia" was published in 2012 while the original edition came out in 2002.

Englander and Snell are professional authors, they know to avoid long paragraphs and their first is just five lines long. So why is the second an astonishing 26 lines (sic) - over five times longer? How to deliberately mislead? You hide the inconvenient truth - the enormous drop in crime - in the middle of a very long paragraph in a very long sentence which no one will read.

Why did the analysis of Kennesaw's crime reductions - achieved by directly encouraging their citizens to be armed - use obsolete data from 1985, only 3 short years after their ordinance was passed, rather than up-to-date numbers covering the full 30 year span? And why...

See the complete, very misleading story on their
hatchet job here.

17. Comparisons: How violent is your city?

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FBI Seal courtesy of Wikipedia.org
Every city is different, that's why the FBI caution AGAINST ranking. They strenuously discourage comparing a city's crime rates with any others because many factors not just jurisdictional population and the uniqueness of each locale cause the nature and type of crime to vary from place to place.

Comparing one city's crime rate with another has an enormous problem: In biased hands seeking to rationalize a high crime rate it can become a heads-I-win, tails-you-lose excuse.

No matter how similar the two cities, there are always differences. If your crime rate is lower you can use your similarities to point out how much better you're doing and deny any need for innovative changes. If one is higher you can use your differences to again deny any need for change.

This is another - crucial - reason why the FBI warns against comparisons with other cities. Yet the FBI also know comparison gives a highly realistic indication of how well your police are discouraging criminals and coping with crime. Comparing your city's crime rates to
the rest of your State or the whole country - the FBI's normalized US National Average crime rates - avoids all these issues.

Food for Thought

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170 million new guns, 51% decrease in violent crime since 1991
Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke
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"With officers laid off and furloughed, simply calling 911 and waiting is no longer your best option. You can beg for mercy from a violent criminal, hide under the bed, or you can fight back; but are you prepared?

"Consider taking a certified safety course in handling a firearm so you can defend yourself until we get there. You have a duty to protect yourself and your family."

Nelson Police Chief Jim Koury, courtesy nelsongeorgia.com
City of Nelson Police Chief Jim Koury enjoys the increased cooperation the police get in solving crimes from citizens who can protect themselves:

"People normally don't want to get involved in suspicious activity or crimes because they're scared of becoming a victim themselves.

"But [once you're armed and able to protect yourself], you're much more likely to be open and sincere with police officers because you have a means to defend yourself and your family if the bad guys come looking for you."


– Police Chief Jim Koury, City of Nelson, Georgia

Stopped by police 14.3 deaths, stopped by civilians 2.3 die
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Average deaths in a shooting rampage when stopped by police: 14.3. But average deaths when stopped by civilians: far less - just 2.3.

So discourage violent criminals and terrorists from attacking your people. Encourage your qualified, law-abiding citizens to be able to defend themselves, their family and their property. Both concealed carry as well as the discretionary ordinance are entirely optional - there's no penalty and they're exempt from complying if they object for any reason at all!

Despite media misunderstanding and much misrepresentation, Universal Gun Ownership is not coercive, it's neither Mandatory Gun Ownership nor Compulsory Gun Ownership. It's simply a choice to be prepared to defend themselves and their loved ones from a violent criminal in advance...

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